MS - ESS3.B - Natural Hazard Predictions - ASSIGNED (CLF 2/13/2014)

Module: Natural Hazard Predictions

DCI: ESS3.B (0) Mapping the history of natural hazards in a region, combined with an understanding of related geologic forces can help forecast the locations and likelihoods of future events.

PE: MS-ESS3-2 Analyze and interpret data on natural hazards to forecast future catastrophic events and inform the development of technologies to mitigate their effects.

 [Clarification Statement: Emphasis is on how some natural hazards, such as volcanic eruptions and severe weather, are preceded by phenomena that allow for reliable predictions, but others, such as earthquakes, occur suddenly and with no notice, and thus are not yet predictable. Examples of natural hazards can be taken from interior processes (such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions), surface processes (such as mass wasting and tsunamis), or severe weather events (such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods). Examples of data can include the locations, magnitudes, and frequencies of the natural hazards. Examples of technologies can be global (such as satellite systems to monitor hurricanes or forest fires) or local (such as building basements in tornado-prone regions or reservoirs to mitigate droughts).]

The ideas in this standard are: 

- by mapping the history of natural hazards in a region and understanding geologic forces, we are able to forecast the locations and likelihoods of future events. 

Students should not have to have explicit knowledge of geologic forces or how they relate to certain hazards.  However, they should know that, if, in the past a region has been particularly prone to a type of event, it will most likely be prone to that same type of event in the future. 

They should also know that scientists can 'read' cues by studying geologic processes and use those as indicators of future events.  Based on our knowledge of the causes and effects of natural hazards, we have been able to develop technologies to help decrease the devastation caused by them. 

Possible Question Starters: 

"Tornado Alley is a region in the United States that is most prone to tornado activity.  (CJ???)

Based on the distribution of tornado activity across the United States, which of the following cities would be most likely to have homes with a designated tornado safe location such as a cellar, basement, or storm closet?"

correct answer - topeka, kansas

Interestingly enough - I read online that many houses in Oklahoma and Kansas do not have basements because of the soil being too rocky and hard.  There might be a question there though --> There are better technologies now like building storm closets with concrete walls in the interior of the house where basements are an impractical solution.  

For other questions we will probably have to do some research. 
At this time, there are no reliable prediction methods for earthquakes, but we could ask about an unreliable method, if we give data.

A tsunami question could include a map of the location of a seismic even, the ask where the tsunami is likely to hit.
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/savageearth/tsunami/html/sidebar1.html
In this map, I would guess Australia.


We could do something for mass wasting where we provide a map showing conditions, the ask where it is likely to occur. I figure it would be the side of a hill with a steep slope that gets lots of rain.