MS - ESS2.D (B) - Predicting Weather - FINAL (RC 1/30/2014)

Module: Predicting Weather

DCI: ESS2.D (B) Because these patterns are so complex, weather can only be predicted probabilistically.

PE: MS-ESS2-5 Collect data to provide evidence for how the motions and complex interactions of air masses results in changes in weather conditions.

[Clarification Statement: Emphasis is on how air masses flow from regions of high pressure to low pressure, causing weather (defined by temperature, pressure, humidity, precipitation, and wind) at a fixed location to change over time, and how sudden changes in weather can result when different air masses collide. Emphasis is on how weather can be predicted within probabilistic ranges. Examples of data can be provided to students (such as weather maps, diagrams, and visualizations) or obtained through laboratory experiments (such as with condensation).] [Assessment Boundary: Assessment does not include recalling the names of cloud types or weather symbols used on weather maps or the reported diagrams from weather stations.]

The ideas in this standard are: 

- the patterns of the ocean and atmosphere are very complex, so weather can only be predicted probabilistically. 

So, while previous batches have focused on the interactions of the ocean and atmosphere (and their affect on climate/weather), this batch needs to focus only on how weather can be predicted based on patterns of movement.  This will be a bit more work on our part, because the clarification statement tells us that they do not have to know how to use weather symbols or station diagrams, so we will have to provide information, including a key, on what data we are using. 

Possible Question Starters: 

"These weather maps show conditions in Texas on two days. 

Which city has the best chance of having cold and rainy weather on Monday? **We probably need to tweak the diagram so that more cities are behind the front and fewer in front of the front.  

correct answer - Austin

incorrect answer - Amarillo, El Paso, Houston 

"The Jet Stream is a global pattern of atmospheric movement that influences patterns in local weather. 

Rain and sometimes severe thunderstorms are associated with the passage of a cold front. Based on this information, and the information provided in the weather map, which city has the best chance of experiencing rain and/or thunderstorms in the next few days?"

correct answer - Nashville

(We have maps with low and high pressure as well.)